Originally published for customers January 14, 2026.
What’s the issue?
Pipeline and LNG projects continue to move through permitting and construction, with targeted in-service dates adjusting as execution constraints emerge.
Why does it matter?
These shifts affect when capacity is actually available, how contracts are sequenced, and where regional supply assumptions hold or break down.
What’s our view?
Projects targeting 2026 in-service represent over 9.0 Bcf/d of capacity and set the stage for a significant wave of LNG demand in 2027.
This is the first in a new series of quarterly project updates tracking the development of major U.S. natural gas infrastructure — including interstate and intrastate pipelines and relevant LNG export projects. Each update synthesizes data from ArView Project Intelligence (PI) with analysis published through ArView Insights, translating granular project tracking into a consolidated view of how infrastructure development is progressing and where timelines are shifting. These quarterly project updates will either highlight changes since the prior quarter or focus on a defined forward-looking window.
In Critical Path to Capacity: Forecasting What is Coming Online When, we outlined our forecasting methodology, data sources, and how we apply subject-matter expertise and historical benchmarks to account for risk and potential delays that inform our views.
As projects move through permitting and construction, we progressively decouple developer stated in-service dates from our forecasts and instead anchor our analysis on regulatory approvals, construction starts, and observed execution pace. Benchmarking achieved milestones against historical timelines allows us to assess whether projects are trending ahead of, behind, or in line with expectations, and to identify where risk is accumulating.
Arbo Project Intelligence generally does not forecast projects that proceed under prior notice or blanket certificates, projects with less than 0.1 Bcf/d of capacity, minor intrastate pipelines outside of Texas and Louisiana, or projects that have not been announced by an authoritative source such as a developer or regulator. Arbo Project Intelligence tracks these types of projects where appropriate, but they generally have limited market impact and add noise to an already noisy arena.
This edition focuses on interstate and intrastate pipelines expected to enter service in 2026. We exclude LNG export facilities, as only two liquefaction projects, Golden Pass LNG and Corpus Christi Stage III, are ramping during the year, and Corpus Christi Stage III has already received authorization to produce LNG from four of its seven trains.
CP Express Phase 1
CP Express Phase 1 is a 2.2 Bcf/d pipeline that transports gas from the terminus of Blackfin pipeline in Jasper County, Texas, to CP2 LNG in Louisiana. The project is divided into two construction spreads. FERC filings indicate that Spread 1 is in preliminary construction and Spread 2 has started construction.
At the Moss Lake Compressor Station, Arbo’s construction indicators and state-level regulatory data do not yet show evidence of construction activity. However, FERC approved Venture Global’s request to commence construction on December 8, 2025, indicating work could begin shortly.
Venture Global most recently provided a Q2 2026 in-service date. However, applying Arbo’s historical benchmarks for pipeline and compressor station construction timelines, we expect a September 2026 in-service date.
Gulf Coast Compression Expansion
The Gulf Coast Compression Expansion is the first of the major Texas intrastate pipelines expected to enter service in 2026. Kinder Morgan has held a Q2 2026 target, though Arbo’s analysis indicates a risk of slippage into Q3 2026.
Our methodology for intrastate compression upgrades requires both approved air permit filings (new and renewed) and observed construction before considering work to have begun. Applying this approach, we identified five compressor stations in the expansion, including both greenfield and brownfield sites, both of which have distinct construction timelines. Construction also started at different times across the sites. While the first compressor station could be operational as early as Q1 2026, Arbo defines in-service for projects only adding compression as the point at which all stations are constructed. Because construction on three stations did not begin until Q3 2025, historical benchmarks indicate a risk that the project will slip beyond the developers’ in-service date.
Blackcomb
The Blackcomb pipeline includes a 366-mile mainline and an 80-mile lateral transporting gas from the Permian Basin to Agua Dulce. WhiteWater Midstream has published a Q3 2026 in-service date, which broadly aligns with Arbo’s forecast.
Arbo’s dataset indicates that construction is underway along the full mainline and at two compressor stations. Blackcomb’s Phase 1 is designed for 2.0 Bcf/d, while a potential Phase 2 expansion would add an incremental 0.5 Bcf/d; however, no timeline for that expansion has been announced.
In this context, Arbo finds it notable that only two compressor stations are currently planned to support 2.0 Bcf/d of capacity. Given Blackcomb’s length, we would typically expect at least three compressor stations to move that volume. If additional compression is required for Phase 1, the project’s in-service date would likely slip beyond Q3 2026. That risk, however, hinges on whether Phase 1 is intended to deliver the full 2.0 Bcf/d at in-service.
Blackfin
As stated in 2026 Watchlist: Projects, Permits, Power and Progressive Risk, we will continue to comprehensively cover Blackfin’s litigation woes related to its compressor station siting issue. For additional background, see Blackfin’s Pickle in Conroe. The project was initially slated for a 2025 in-service date, but the ongoing construction suggests the project is not completed. This is likely due to the pipeline’s limited delivery points beyond CP Express, which remains under construction, as well as ongoing litigation impacting the project. Blackfin has already found an alternative site for the compressor station, but the result of the May bench trial and any subsequent appeals could still impact siting choice and scope of permitting activity.
Hugh Brinson Pipeline Phase 1
The last major intrastate pipeline expected to enter service in 2026 is Hugh Brinson Phase 1. Energy Transfer has held a Q4 2026 in-service date, which aligns with Arbo’s expectations. The project spans approximately 480 miles and is expected to transport 1.5 Bcf/d from the Permian Basin to Maypearl, Texas. Construction activity has been observed at both compressors, along the lateral, the Waha-to-Panther segment, and across most mainline counties.
Texas-Louisiana Expansion Project Phase 2
The Texas-Louisiana Expansion Project would add 0.47 Bcf/d of capacity from the Natural Gas Pipeline Company’s (Natural’s) South Texas and Iowa-Illinois Receipt Zones to Natural’s Louisiana Delivery Zone. Kinder Morgan has set a July 2026 in-service date, which aligns with Arbo’s view. Phase 1 entered service on April 1, 2025, adding 3,200 horsepower at Compressor Station (CS) 302 in Montgomery County, Texas. Phase 2 of the project adds 26,000 horsepower to Compressor Station 343 in Liberty County, Texas, and 18,340 horsepower to CS 302.
Not all projects carry equal market weight. Larger projects serving more constrained regions, or projects with significant implications for pricing, draw greater attention. While our coverage naturally prioritizes these projects, Arbo continues to model more than 150 natural gas infrastructure projects to maintain comprehensive market coverage. For example, the following seven interstate projects are generally smaller, have a more limited market impact, or are located in lower-visibility markets than those discussed above: Bison XPress, the Tioga Pathway Project, the Cedar Vale Compressor Station Project, the Rover–Bulger CS and Harmon Creek MS Expansion, the Cumberland Project, the TTC Connector, and the Ridgeline Expansion Project.
The chart below illustrates the progress of three of these projects and our benchmarks for when we would expect those milestones to be achieved. The remaining four projects were not included in the chart since they have already achieved almost all required FERC milestones and are under construction, with the next step being in-service.
TTC Connector filed its application and completed its environmental review later than expected, suggesting some delay risk. Since environmental review timelines are generally consistent across projects, meeting the developer’s stated in-service range would likely require either an earlier-than-expected FERC certificate or an unusually fast construction schedule.
Conversely, early progress through regulatory milestones does not necessarily translate to early in-service because developers can still be slow to execute on construction, which is why we generally do not advance a project’s forecasted in-service date based solely on regulatory milestones. The Tioga Pathway Project illustrates this dynamic. Although the project achieved most of its FERC milestones near the upper end of our benchmarks, it has not yet begun construction.
For Tioga Pathway, we expected construction to begin between early Q4 2025 and early Q2 2026, but the lack of construction shifted the project toward the back half of our benchmarks. However, project-specific context tempers the risk of delay. The developer has received FERC authorization to begin construction, but has chosen not to start yet. With an estimated construction duration of approximately 190 days, the project retains sufficient float to meet its October 2026 in-service date, if construction begins around April.
Interstate pipeline projects are particularly well-suited to milestone-based forecasting because FERC approvals are sequential and contingent on the completion of the prior one. This allows us to generate granular forecasts from milestone to milestone and eventually in-service. Benchmarking against these historical expectations and refining the resulting timelines with subject-matter expertise and project-specific context allows us to assess whether projects are trending ahead of, behind, or in line with developer targets, as shown for the three projects below.
As projects advance, they will have meaningful implications for LNG supply, market fundamentals, and regional pricing. Accurately forecasting in-service timing requires intelligence that integrates regulatory developments, litigation risk, construction progress, and project-specific context. This Insights article offers a peek into how Project Intelligence is designed to meet that need. To learn more about this product, please click here.
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2026 brings 22 Bcf/d of projected pipeline capacity additions as permitting reform advances and litigation patterns shift post-Seven County. We’re watching closely for NESE and Constitution pipeline revivals, FERC blanket authority expansion, CWA 401 disputes, and the intersection of AI-driven power demand with gas infrastructure development across evolving regulatory and political landscapes.
2025 brought major shifts in energy infrastructure: 6 Bcf/d of new pipeline capacity entered service as federal litigation risk declined following Seven County. A fully seated FERC Commission and surging AI power demand accelerated gas project development while environmental challenges moved to state courts.