Quarterly Project Update: Extended Look into 2027
Originally published for customers April 22, 2026.
What’s the issue?
Pipeline and LNG projects continue to move through permitting and construction, with targeted in-service dates adjusting as execution constraints emerge.
Why does it matter?
These shifts affect when capacity is actually available, how contracts are sequenced, and where regional supply assumptions hold or break down.
What’s our view?
Projects targeting 2027 in-service will largely serve LNG demand, with emerging data center and power demand becoming more material in 2028 and beyond.
This article is the second in a series of quarterly project updates tracking the development of major U.S. natural gas infrastructure — including interstate and intrastate pipelines and relevant LNG export projects. Each update synthesizes data from ArView Project Intelligence (PI) with analysis published through ArView Insights, translating granular project tracking into a consolidated view of how infrastructure development is progressing and where timelines are shifting.
Last quarter’s update focused on interstate pipelines under Section 7(c) and intrastate systems across Texas and Louisiana expected to enter service in 2026. This quarter we extend our look into 2027. While Arbo’s capacity assumptions generally reflect full design capacity entering service, in practice, projects may introduce partial volumes earlier, with full capacity achieved over time.
Arbo is currently tracking 18 pipeline projects with developer-stated in-service dates in 2027, representing approximately 23 Bcf/d of capacity. Of the 18 projects, 13 are interstate pipelines totaling roughly 14.6 Bcf/d. Notably, 10 of these projects, representing nearly 9 Bcf/d, have progressed through key regulatory milestones, including formal application filings or entry into the environmental review process.
The remaining five projects are intrastate pipelines, accounting for approximately 8.5 Bcf/d of capacity. Two of these are system expansions, with initial phases expected to enter service in 2026.
Arbo Project Intelligence Viewpoints
At the project level, Arbo’s forecasts are often narrower than developer guidance, reflecting differences in how timelines are assessed. While developer timelines typically represent target outcomes, Arbo’s forecasts are anchored in observed construction progress, regulatory sequencing, and benchmarked development timelines, enabling us to assess whether projects are trending ahead of, behind, or in line with expectations.
The Pelican Pipeline, an approximately 160-mile Louisiana intrastate pipeline designed to transport up to 2.5 Bcf/d from North Louisiana to Gillis, is targeting an in-service date in 1H 2027. Based on current construction progress, Arbo expects the project to enter service in late Q1 2027.
However, only the New Hope Compressor Station has been permitted to date. This suggests that initial capacity may be constrained relative to the project’s full design capacity. Additional compression will likely be required to achieve the full 2.5 Bcf/d, creating the potential for a phased capacity ramp-up following initial in-service.
Kinder Morgan’s 1.5 Bcf/d Texas intrastate Trident Pipeline is targeting a Q1 2027 in-service date. Data indicates that both compressor stations are under construction, with mainline construction beginning in Q1 2026.
Arbo’s analysis indicates that the compressor stations are on the critical path. Applying greenfield compression benchmarks supports a mid-Q1 2027 in-service date, broadly aligning with developer guidance.
Williams’ Southeast Supply Enhancement (SSE) project is targeting a Q4 2027 in-service date. While Arbo maintains a mid-Q4 2027 forecast for full in-service, observed progress indicates potential for partial in-service approximately one year earlier. While litigation has not yet cropped up for SSE, it could, because rehearing of the FERC certificate was requested and recently denied by operation of law on May 2, 2026. That started the 60-day clock for parties to file an appeal.
Williams’ Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) project is also targeting an in-service date in Q4 2027. Arbo’s current estimates are aligned with that view. While Williams completed some limited construction before holding a recent ceremonial construction kickoff, full construction has not yet commenced, and before it does, the project still requires a formal notice to proceed from FERC. In addition, ongoing litigation across multiple venues poses execution risk that could impact in-service timing.
The graph below shows where and when Arbo’s forecast diverges from the developer’s for projects entering service in 2027.
LNG Demand: The Primary Driver of 2027 Capacity Additions
LNG export projects remain the central driver of natural gas infrastructure development heading into 2027. Arbo is closely tracking four major projects expected to shape incremental demand: Golden Pass LNG, Rio Grande LNG, Port Arthur LNG, and CP2 LNG.
As noted in Golden Pass LNG Reaches First LNG – What the Signals Actually Showed, Arbo’s first LNG forecasts for Golden Pass LNG Train 1 demonstrated a high degree of accuracy due to our benchmarking methodology. Applying the same framework, Arbo currently expects Train 3 to achieve first LNG in 1H 2027.
However, timing will likely be informed by the progression of Train 2 and broader construction timelines. As additional authorizations are issued, Train 3’s forecast will become significantly more precise.
NextDecade has most recently guided to a 1H 2027 first LNG date. Arbo’s current view is slightly later, with a Q3 2027 expectation.
The key gating milestone will be the authorization to introduce fuel gas into Train 1. If the project is to meet the earlier developer timeline, this authorization would likely need to occur in early 2027, based on historical commissioning timelines.
Sempra Infrastructure has indicated a mid-2027 first LNG target for Port Arthur LNG Train 1. Arbo’s forecast is currently Q3 2027.
At this stage, the project has secured several key construction authorizations. As with Rio Grande LNG, the timing of the fuel gas authorization may provide a strong indicator of when first LNG will occur.
Venture Global has most recently stated a 2H 2027 first LNG forecast. Applying benchmarks developed from historical analysis of Venture Global projects, Arbo expects first LNG in Q4 2027. However, based on observed regulatory and construction progress, there is some risk that the first LNG will slip into 2028.
Notably, FERC recently issued a pre-filing waiver for an expansion of CP2 LNG. The proposed expansion includes six additional liquefaction blocks, a 720-megawatt power plant, three pre-treatment facilities, and a 272,000-horsepower compressor station.
Project Development Trends Ahead
As we discussed in Shifting Headwinds Set the Stage for New Interstate Buildout, interstate pipeline development has slowed in recent years. Lengthier permitting timelines, stagnant power demand, increased litigation, and shifting policy signals led to a shift in focus away from large interstate pipeline projects and toward LNG export demand. These market signals, and the structural lag between them and years-long pipeline development cycles, have shaped recent interstate development, leading to a concentration of development along the Gulf Coast.
Almost three-quarters of the 15 Bcf/d of interstate capacity slated to come online in 2027 is either directly or indirectly tied to LNG demand — roughly 6 Bcf/d will directly serve LNG export terminals and roughly 5 Bcf/d will deliver into proximate demand hubs such as Katy.
The chart below illustrates the annual breakdown of projects by total capacity additions and the number of projects placed into service from 2023 through 2027 between interstate and intrastate pipelines.
With the exception of 2024, which included the long-delayed in-service of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, intrastate pipelines have accounted for the majority of capacity additions, particularly along the Gulf Coast. This, in part, reflects the lower regulatory burden for intrastate development, which allows larger-scale projects to advance more quickly. While interstate pipelines have remained active in terms of project count, they have contributed a smaller share of total capacity additions from 2023 through 2026.
However, 2027 appears to mark a potential inflection point with developers pivoting towards interstate pipelines. These projects are expected to account for a greater share of new capacity additions driven primarily by LNG demand with additional growth from data center and power generation expected to materialize in 2028 and beyond, reshaping both the geographic focus and underlying drivers of pipeline development.
Arbo is currently tracking 15 pipeline projects that explicitly cite data centers as a demand driver, representing approximately 16 Bcf/d of potential capacity. However, only approximately 1.5 Bcf/d of this capacity is expected to enter service by 2027, reinforcing the impact of development lead times. Most of these projects remain in early-stage development, indicating that these demand factors are more likely to materialize in the 2028–2030 window.
Taken together, the data point to a clear transition from development driven heavily by LNG demand in 2027 to a more diversified wave of interstate projects in 2028 and beyond. Early signals from both project announcements and regional demand trends indicate that incremental pipeline development will increasingly extend beyond traditional LNG corridors into regions experiencing load growth driven by power generation and data infrastructure.
We will evaluate these projects and their development progress in greater detail in the next quarterly update.