MVP Announces Delayed In-Service, But It May Still be Optimistic

Originally published for customers October 25, 2023

Equitrans now expects an in-service date in the first quarter of 2024. We believe this is overly optimistic, primarily because of the “extra-judicial” opposition we expect. There still remains a substantial risk of further delay into at least the second quarter of 2024 and possibly the third quarter.

What’s the issue?

On October 18, the primary owner and developer of the Mountain Valley Pipeline filed a notice with the Securities and Exchange Commission which stated that it had “refined the targeted timing for completing construction of the project from year-end 2023 to the first quarter of 2024.”

Why does it matter?

The timing of MVP’s in-service impacts natural gas prices along most of the East Coast and also impacts the stock price of the primary owner, Equitrans Midstream.

What’s our view?

The announcement included some worrying details, which along with our review of the progress reports filed to date, lead us to believe that the newly revised date may still be overly optimistic. There remains a substantial risk of further delay into at least the second quarter of 2024 and possibly the third quarter. However, there was good news for the developer in the form of new legislation in the state of North Carolina that could increase the likelihood that a follow-on project, MVP Southgate, can get approvals from the North Carolina environmental regulator.

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